Will Mortgage Rates Fall Below 6%? What Experts Are Predicting
As 2025 rolls on, one of the biggest questions on the minds of prospective homebuyers, investors, and mortgage professionals is: Will mortgage rates fall below 6% this year? With the Federal Reserve taking a cautious approach to interest rate cuts and inflation still hovering above targets, the answer is more complex than a simple yes or no.
In this article, we break down current trends, expert forecasts, and what you can expect in the second half of 2025.
Current Mortgage Rate Landscape
As of June 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits around 6.8%, while 15-year rates hover just under 6%. This marks a moderate decline from late 2024, when rates briefly surged past 7% due to persistent inflation and global economic uncertainty.
While this downward trend brings some relief to borrowers, rates are still historically high compared to the sub-4% era seen in the early 2020s.
What’s Holding Rates Up?
Despite early-year optimism, several key factors are keeping rates above 6%:
Sticky Inflation: While inflation has cooled from pandemic-era highs, it remains above the Fed’s 2% target, prompting caution around aggressive rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed has hinted at two modest rate cuts in 2025, but it’s walking a fine line between easing policy and avoiding a resurgence in inflation.
Global Volatility: Geopolitical tensions, fiscal policy uncertainty, and economic ripple effects from abroad continue to keep investors on edge, pushing bond yields—and mortgage rates—higher.
Expert Predictions: Will Rates Drop Below 6%?
Industry experts generally agree that rates will trend downward throughout 2025, but falling below the 6% mark remains uncertain.
SourceForecast for End of 2025Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)~6.6%National Association of Realtors (NAR)~6.4%Realtor.com~6.3%Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac~6.1%–6.3%Wells Fargo~6.9%
Some analysts believe that if inflation drops sharply or the Fed accelerates its rate cuts, a 5.9%–5.95% mortgage rate could become possible by late 2025. However, most forecasts place that likelihood closer to 2026.
What Could Push Rates Below 6%?
There are a few scenarios that could drive mortgage rates down faster than expected:
Rapid Decline in Inflation: If core inflation drops quickly, the Fed could loosen monetary policy more aggressively.
Economic Weakness: Signs of a slowing economy could spur earlier or deeper rate cuts.
Bond Market Rally: A surge in demand for Treasuries could lower yields and bring mortgage rates down in tandem.
What Should Borrowers Do Now?
If You're House Hunting Now:
Locking in a mortgage in the low-6% range can still be a smart move, especially if home prices are rising in your market. You can always refinance later if rates fall further.
If You're Waiting for <6%:
It’s a gamble. While sub-6% rates are possible, waiting may cost you in the form of higher home prices, especially in tight inventory markets.
Final Thoughts
While many are hoping for mortgage rates to dip below 6% in 2025, most expert forecasts suggest we’ll stay slightly above that threshold for the remainder of the year. However, with inflation cooling and the Fed slowly shifting its stance, early 2026 could bring the sub-6% environment buyers crave.
For now, buyers and lenders alike should focus on market timing, negotiation power, and long-term strategy rather than betting on the perfect rate.
